Forex Diamonds
Text summary of the video:
- Yesterday saw German IFO come out too close to expectations, and the New Home Sales got overshadowed by a Geitner foot-in-the-mouth comment about potentially supporting an SDR backed currency. The SDR is an index based on a currency basked of USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY and a move towards that currency would likely shift towards replacing the USD as the world's major reserve currency asset. Geitner later tried to somewhat retract his statement with some double talk, but the damage was done and it's definitely a USD weakening pressure. This development has created a bit of a hot mess on the EUR/USD, so we need to move to neutral for a bit and wait for a convincing break of either 1.3740 to confirm an upside bias, or a convincing selloff to/through 1.3400 to reassert the downside bias we've tentatively held onto for now. Watch the video for a more in depth analysis on stocks, gold, and the USD. For today there are 2 pieces of news worth trading:
- 0530 UK Retail Sales (-0.4% expected) - This one should make it's move fast in the first 2-5 minutes, and likely reattempt it's spike extremes after a retracement a bit later.
If it comes out at 0.2% or higher, GBP/USD should rally by 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off by 40-50 pips.
- 0830 US GDP 4Q Final Revision - I don't recommend trading this as any surprises here are likely to create whipsaws and fakeouts. If anything, look to trade the volatility here.
- 1745 NZ GDP q/q (-1.1% expected) - A 0.3% deviation should be worth at least 30 pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, NZD/USD should rise by 30-50 pips.
If it comes out at -1.4% or lower, NZD/USD should fall by 30-50 pips.
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