03-31-2009.swf


Forex Diamonds
Text summary of the video:
  • Monday saw no major economic numbers of consequence, but the markets sold off pretty hard as anticipated. The EUR/USD saw some decent downside action too, and thankfully has retraced up to a bit more attractive of a selling level to start building a potential position trade short in the 1.3200's. I'd continue to sell EUR/USD on rallies. Gold broke the major trendline we've been eyeing and whipsawed around afterwards and has since held somewhat firmly below the trendline. I wouldn't call it a clear breakout just yet, but every passing day seems to bring us bits more confirmation of our strong bias towards significant gold downside. On stocks, we saw the S&P futures barely touch the upper end of our 765-775 support level. Realistically, I'm still holding short, looking to TP in the range of 750-775 and start to flip long in that range as well. I'm fairly confident well see S&P surpass or at least come near 1000 in the next 2-6 months, so I'd like to catch some nice coin on the upside before the next major break lower later this year that should bring us to new lows. There are a lot of economic numbers tomorrow, but all of them are small and relatively inconsistent with their ability to sway price action. There is one I find worth watching though:
  • 2030 AU Retail Sales m/m (-0.5% expected) - This isn't the best trade in the world, but I think it's worth a look.
    If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, AUD/USD should rise by about 30 pips.
    If it comes out at -1.5% or lower, AUD/USD should fall by about 30 pips.
  • Real data starts hitting wires with the US morning on Wednesday, so that's the time I'll be watching to really start my week scalping. Until then, I'll just be working these positions and swings.
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