Forex Diamonds
Text summary of the video:
- Very interesting price action happening right as I write/record this signal. The EUR/USD is finally breaking that 1.3090 key level I've brought up the past week or so as biasing our medium to long term Euro direction. Trichet came out at 23:30 EST with some more bearish commentary and validation of those dovish "nonstandard measures" and that's what got the ball rolling. The tough part right here right now though is that this needs to become a firm break, not just a stop run that turns into a wick on the longer term charts. Assuming that is not the case, it's safe to assume a more aggressive EUR/USD short stance and look to sell any rallies. In the video I identify 1.3150-70 range as a great place to sell, but at the time of the recording ending, (about 00:50) even a market short doesn't seem too bad depending on your timeframe. I see next decent support to the downside at 1.2950, but if the dominoes fall the right way, we could see EUR/USD resume it's downtrend to the 1.2400 area and new lows, so I'll keep you posted.
- The EUR/GBP position short continues to do well and will likely see this 8790 support give way later today.
- Our short gold bias/position continues to perform well but we still have a long way to go to the 600's where this is likely headed. I don't think we'll see a rally above 900 before a bigger break of the 865 spot market swing lows from last week.
- Stocks continue to consolidate within a tightening sloping wedge. The tighter it gets without a break makes it more and more likely we'll break to the downside. For now though, sell the top of the range in the 860-870 area on the S&P and buy or take profit on short in the 840-850 range. Once the supportive trendline (now around 840) breaks, we can hold out for more of a selloff.
- Thursday's news all came out close to expectations, so there were no surprises to give us good price action unfortunately. For Friday:
- 0700 CAD CPI Core m/m (0.2% expected) - Unfortunately I can't give you typical triggers on this one. Watch the video for a more in depth look, but realistically CAD CPI surprises can cause movements in either direction, but I still think the volatility is tradable. Look to play a whipsaw reversal looking to buy an initial selloff after about 3 minutes or sell an initial rally after about 3 minutes.
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